Days of Futures Passed

I'm known as something of a futures guru. Futures have led to some significant, reputation-making scores. Futures are the one category of wagering in which I will occasionally "step out of my lane." I am, however, a conservative creature, and in 2019 I have arguably been too conservative. My mistakes have to do with NOT betting teams. These errors of omission have turned out to be real botches.

I tend to be tight when analyzing sports at which I'm not expert, which is everything but football. I  think that comprehensive shopping, schedule analysis, and timing can carry bettors to futures profits, but my trigger threshold is much higher for sports other than football.

Prior to the start of the NHL playoffs, Boston had caught my eye as the best value based on some of my post-season statistical priorities. I thought, however, that the odds to win the title were right on the edge of wager worthiness. The record-setting Tampa Bay team scared me. I made the decision to pass. Then the favored Lightning were miraculously swept in the first round, two of the next best teams were also ousted, and Boston had a clear path to the finals. Once in the finals, hedging would have guaranteed me a solid profit. Not a great decision to pass, as it turned out.

In the NBA, I had my eye on Toronto, as the Raptors are routinely underbet in futures, especially in Las Vegas (as opposed to offshore). One problem, I felt, was that Toronto faced Philadelphia in the first round. Toronto had completely owned the 76ers recently, winning 14 of 15 games or thereabouts. That depressed the Raptor futures numbers. In addition, Golden State loomed as a likely Finals opponent that would be a prohibitive favorite. I was not sure how heavy a favorite. Years earlier, I had taken a very good 76er team at 30-1 and 35-1 to win the title, only to see them face off against a Kobe/Shaq Lakers team that was -1100 in the series. The -1100 had surprised me, and I made very little on the wager because of the wicked hedging. I was concerned I'd run into a similar situation. Once again, I passed. Well, Toronto leads Golden State 2-1 in the Finals, and the Raptors will be a lousy value for years to come. So that is the end of that.

In baseball, I will be surprised if the present does not portend the future, which simply means that I expect the teams in first place after 50 games to finish on top. This season, there appear to be no baseball futures bargains. After 30 games, I had my eye on the Mets as a conceivable long shot threat. They had decent numbers in the statistics I prioritize, and they were owed a huge home stand in terms of home/road games. Their numbers, however, took a dive during the next 20 games, and now I really cannot take them. Despite my recent errors of omission, I'm going to take a deep, sighing breath and pass once more.

The job, after all, isn't to amuse yourself or demonstrate cajones or brilliance. The job is to make money. Keeping your wallet in your pocket should always be the default.


Bob Dietz -- June 7, 2019