"The prophecies from the Trump administration have failed. In fact, they have failed miserably. Make no mistake, however, there will be far-fetched prophecies to come. And no shortage of believers." Bob Dietz (May 2, 2020)
"We'll be at 100,000, 110,000 -- the lower level of what was projected if we did the shutdown." President Trump (May 8, 2020)
"The Trumpian number, according to me, might last until the end of May, maybe, hopefully." Bob Dietz (May 10, 2020)
Well, that was pretty much spot on -- by me, not the president. The end of May figures, which are almost assuredly an undercount, managed to perfectly straddle President Trump's 100,000 and 110,000. We ended May with 105,000 "official" COVID-19 deaths, despite all kinds of accounting shenanigans by Georgia and Florida. The president's prediction, unfortunately, was for the total deaths at pandemic's end. I was giving my estimate for the end of May.
For the last couple of weeks, the president appears to have abandoned his pandemic predicting. Good decision on his part. You would think with the best scientific minds in the world at his disposal, he'd occasionally get something close to correct. But no such luck.
As for me, I wish college football handicapping were this easy. Pay attention, read a few things, identify actual experts, listen to them, put it all together. What a sweatless gig. You'd think all those educated GOP dudes would have caught on by now.
Bob Dietz
June 2, 2020
