As Purdue squares off versus UConn tonight in a battle of #1 seeds, it's time to review some of the lessons learned from smoking seeds this year.
First of all, in games involving differences of opinion between oddsmakers and the seeding committee, out of the six games with distinct disagreements, the committee got four correct and one and a half wrong. The "half wrong" refers to the play-in game with Colorado State and Virginia both considered 10's, but the oddsmakers favoring CSU by a healthy 2 1/2. This is the best the committee has done vis-a-vis oddsmakers in 20 years.
Second, it's clear that the Big East and ACC were underrepresented and under-seeded in the tournament, although the committee for some reason did make a DEI exception for Virginia that stands out like neon signage for Mabel's Whorehouse. The Big 10 and SEC likely had too many squads shoe-horned into the mix.
Third, non-brand basketball teams were hosed. Clearly, there was no reason in the world to blackball NIT champion Indiana State except that the NCAA abhors writing checks to non-brand names. Many teams, such as Grand Canyon, Dayton, Nevada, and James Madison, got killed with their seedings. Those seedings were screwings of the most blatant variety.
From an oddsmaking perspective, I have no real idea why, in the first round, Nevada was favored versus Dayton and TCU was favored versus Utah State. While I had severe disagreements with the committee regarding seedings, I was also baffled by some spreads.
In bracket contests, I picked UConn to win it all, which didn't take Mensa standing. Wagering-wise, I had Kentucky at 28-1, which lasted about an hour, and Gonzaga at 50-1 for dinner money.
The rules changes and NIL context had the predicted (and desired by powers that be) effects. Bigger, deeper blue-chip teams gained advantages with tighter officiating and the three-point line at its current, further distance. The era of the Butlers and Belmonts has dissipated into the mists of history. Bigger, deeper teams have regained advantages previously lost. That doesn't figure to change in 2025.
Bob Dietz
April 8, 2024
