The consequences of additional COVID-19 deaths due to early re-opening have been pushed to the backburner by protests these last two weeks. Whereas political conservatives' push for economic recovery fuels illness and death, now progressives' need for sizable in-person rallies is generating added deaths. This flipping of the script provides an opportunity to pragmatically examine key questions.
The equi-death argument (as presented here in previous entries) discussed the attempt by early re-opening proponents to balance additional lives lost from re-opening with a tally of benefits from "getting back to work," such as reduced suicides, depression, drug use, and domestic violence. This argument is logically flawed. It presumes an American economic structure so unyielding and crystalline that resources cannot be added or reallocated to ameliorate societal problems such as suicide, depression, drug use, and domestic violence.
More importantly, the equi-death argument is laced with self-contradicting elements. Lives can be sacrificed in service of getting the economy rolling so the vulnerable do not succumb to added suicides, depression, drug use, and domestic violence. Yet the same need to save the vulnerable is deemed not applicable to everyday American life sans a pandemic. Suicides, depression, drug use (with the exception of alcohol), and incidents of domestic violence all clearly have a positive correlation with lower socioeconomic status. The early re-opening advocates see no reason to step in and reduce these problems during non-pandemic times. They are somehow driven by their inner angels, however, to step in during a pandemic at the cost of tens of thousands of additional COVID-19 deaths. Empathy and action are required only during the pandemic and only when, coincidentally, the economy is staggering. Adding income or health benefits to reduce suicides, depression, drug use, and domestic violence during "normal economic times" is considered unimportant.
Evidently, the mythology we are supposed to buy into is that the American economy in non-pandemic times is a model of perfection, doling out income and health care as it should be doled out. The structure is the message, so to speak. Long live the structure. But when the economy tanks because of a pandemic, for God's sake, let's save the poor from themselves by putting them back to work.
The equi-death argument, logically flawed, has a rather pungent whiff of convenience and hypocrisy.
Consequences of the Protests
The ongoing protests are going to lead to many more COVID-19 deaths. No amount of righteous indignation or being on the correct historical side is going to prevent that. The question is how many additional people will get seriously ill and how many additional lives will be lost due to viral spread during the demonstrations. My guess is that added deaths will be in the thousands, perhaps five digits.
In a way, progressives' risking their lives and the lives of those at home by protesting is the photographic/logical negative of the early re-openers' argument. Early re-opening proponents refuse to publicly acknowledge that massive budgeting changes could greatly reduce the suicide/depression/drug use/domestic violence issues, whether in pandemic times or not. The re-openers see the existing economic priorities as sclerotic. Progressives are faced with a diametrically opposite dynamic. Roughly a thousand Americans a year are killed by police. If the demonstrations wind up costing 10,000 lives or more due to COVID-19 spread, that's a decade's worth of police killings. Pandemic deaths are a raw, brutal metric that neither God nor Gandhi can change. The only way the protests turn out to be worth those additional COVID-19 lives lost is if long-term changes result. These changes would include not just police behavior, but health care access and outcomes and general socioeconomics. If long-term structural changes occur, then you can make the argument that lives saved going forward outweigh lives lost due to protests during a pandemic.
Conclusion
The early re-openers assume a crystalline, brittle American societal and economic structure. Conversely, the progressives' only way to counterbalance additional COVID-19 lives lost due to protests is to force actual structural change. If significant systemic changes do not result, the demonstrations will have sacrificed lives to the virus in service of people simply feeling good about having done the "right" thing.
Bob Dietz
June 10, 2020
Thursday, June 11, 2020
Saturday, June 6, 2020
Running While White
I grew up in a small, all-white town. We had an official curfew every night. Being teenage boys, we ignored the curfew as often as we possibly could. Our adventures in breaking curfew were generally silly, lowbrow, and a little bit mean. We raided and stole produce from people's gardens, and pelted moving vehicles with that produce. Occasionally we'd blow up someone's mailbox or picture window with heavy duty, delayed-fuse fireworks. On a few daring nights, some of us tossed smoke bombs into the police station, which was located in a classic town clock building a la Back to the Future.
And here is my point. There were a few times when the police caught us in the act of doing something, and we ran. One of the cops yelled, "Stop or I'll shoot," and we kept running. We absolutely, all of us, knew in our hearts that no police officer was going to shoot us for stealing tomatoes or plopping cars with them. On two occasions, a shot was fired. When those shots were fired, we kept running anyway. All of us knew they were warning shots, probably fired straight up into the air. We absolutely, 100% knew that no police officer was going to aim a gun at one of us for curfew violation or tossing a smoke bomb. In fact, when we would later reconvene after a half mile of madly sprinting across streets and through yards, we would joke about our modestly funded police department now being bereft of ammo because they had used "The Bullet" for their warning shot.
Never did it enter our minds that a cop would consider actually shooting at us. We never even discussed the possibility.
That was our white teenage delinquent experience with the police in a small town. We knew the cops saw us as people. We saw the cops as people. The understood contract was that catching someone doing some stupidness was no reason to beat them up or shoot at them. Growing up in that kind of rational, proportional-response environment, I took it for granted. I cannot imagine what it must be like to grow up actually fearing the police and worrying that they might be trigger happy. That's an entirely different societal context, and a whole different perspective on the world. That kind of alienation and fear of local authority is something you wouldn't be able to shake. Ever. It would color your entire life.
Postscript
I was once told by a gas station clerk that my twenty-dollar bill was no good. I asked for it back. He gave it to me. I got in my car, still squinting at the bill. The clerk could see my license plate, but I didn't think anything of it. I just drove off. The clerk didn't call the police; nobody ever questioned me. My best guess was that my local bank had given me the twenty, so I went there with the bill and demanded they swap it out. I gave them hell. They swapped it for me. That was the end of it.
I cannot imagine someone kneeling on my neck had I managed to pass that bad twenty dollars.
Bob Dietz
June 6, 2020
And here is my point. There were a few times when the police caught us in the act of doing something, and we ran. One of the cops yelled, "Stop or I'll shoot," and we kept running. We absolutely, all of us, knew in our hearts that no police officer was going to shoot us for stealing tomatoes or plopping cars with them. On two occasions, a shot was fired. When those shots were fired, we kept running anyway. All of us knew they were warning shots, probably fired straight up into the air. We absolutely, 100% knew that no police officer was going to aim a gun at one of us for curfew violation or tossing a smoke bomb. In fact, when we would later reconvene after a half mile of madly sprinting across streets and through yards, we would joke about our modestly funded police department now being bereft of ammo because they had used "The Bullet" for their warning shot.
Never did it enter our minds that a cop would consider actually shooting at us. We never even discussed the possibility.
That was our white teenage delinquent experience with the police in a small town. We knew the cops saw us as people. We saw the cops as people. The understood contract was that catching someone doing some stupidness was no reason to beat them up or shoot at them. Growing up in that kind of rational, proportional-response environment, I took it for granted. I cannot imagine what it must be like to grow up actually fearing the police and worrying that they might be trigger happy. That's an entirely different societal context, and a whole different perspective on the world. That kind of alienation and fear of local authority is something you wouldn't be able to shake. Ever. It would color your entire life.
Postscript
I was once told by a gas station clerk that my twenty-dollar bill was no good. I asked for it back. He gave it to me. I got in my car, still squinting at the bill. The clerk could see my license plate, but I didn't think anything of it. I just drove off. The clerk didn't call the police; nobody ever questioned me. My best guess was that my local bank had given me the twenty, so I went there with the bill and demanded they swap it out. I gave them hell. They swapped it for me. That was the end of it.
I cannot imagine someone kneeling on my neck had I managed to pass that bad twenty dollars.
Bob Dietz
June 6, 2020
Friday, June 5, 2020
Masking the Problem
Wearing a mask can blind you, but only if you live where I live. Allow me to explain.
In previous entries, I mentioned the Texas bar owner and Kentucky shopkeepers who decided to ban people wearing masks from their establishments, despite COVID-19 task force, CDC, and state recommendations to wear masks. Well, it turns out that those anti-mask folks may have been onto something if the people they banned were wearing masks distributed by the Tennessee Department of Health.
Yes, if you dropped in for COVID-19 testing in Tennessee, you were allowed to take home some handy dandy, state-provided masks for which the Volunteer state paid $8 million. Just one small problem. The masks were treated with Silvadur, a kind of fungicide that the EPA says can "cause irreversible eye damage, cause skin burns, and is harmful if swallowed or inhaled."
Evidently this state procurement idea has the occasional drawback, eh? A friend of mine who recently had cataract surgery had been wearing one of these babies. Thankfully, I never picked some up; I would have been wearing them while jogging.
Two months ago, the state of Tennessee was ranked 49th in virus preparedness. Now we can see why, although we might not be seeing much of anything had we been wearing these health department masks.
Bob Dietz
June 5, 2020
In previous entries, I mentioned the Texas bar owner and Kentucky shopkeepers who decided to ban people wearing masks from their establishments, despite COVID-19 task force, CDC, and state recommendations to wear masks. Well, it turns out that those anti-mask folks may have been onto something if the people they banned were wearing masks distributed by the Tennessee Department of Health.
Yes, if you dropped in for COVID-19 testing in Tennessee, you were allowed to take home some handy dandy, state-provided masks for which the Volunteer state paid $8 million. Just one small problem. The masks were treated with Silvadur, a kind of fungicide that the EPA says can "cause irreversible eye damage, cause skin burns, and is harmful if swallowed or inhaled."
Evidently this state procurement idea has the occasional drawback, eh? A friend of mine who recently had cataract surgery had been wearing one of these babies. Thankfully, I never picked some up; I would have been wearing them while jogging.
Two months ago, the state of Tennessee was ranked 49th in virus preparedness. Now we can see why, although we might not be seeing much of anything had we been wearing these health department masks.
Bob Dietz
June 5, 2020
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
The Dominatrix in Chief
"So I say that and the word is dominate. If you don't dominate your city and your state, they're gonna walk away with you...we're going to have that total domination." President Trump on governors' conference call (June 1, 2020)
I'm one of those folks who's always trying to read between the lines or figure out what's meant by what hasn't been said. So I thought I'd pitch in and explain why the president has recently become so fond of the word "dominate," which has not previously been one of his go-to fave words.
On May 28, I recommended Tony Schwarz's "The Psychopath in Chief," published by Medium.com that same day. Schwarz was the president's ghostwriter for The Art of the Deal. Initially, Schwarz thought that Donald Trump was driven by narcissism to manufacture love and praise. Schwarz, however, has changed his mind. In his latest piece, he explains what he now thinks is the president's primary motivation.
"...what drives Trump more deeply: the need to dominate. His primary goal is to win at any cost and the end always justifies the means. Ultimately, he doesn't care what anyone else thinks or feels. For Trump, the choice between dominating and being loved -- saving himself or saving others -- is no contest."
Later Schwarz says, "He either wins or loses, dominates or submits" and "His obsession with domination and power have prompted Trump to tell lies more promiscuously than ever since he became president... ."
While it may be a coincidence that Schwartz's "dominating" appraisal of the president was followed days later by the president's new penchant for the word "dominate," I doubt it. The president's weekly reading list may be slim, but it would probably include his former ghostwriter's latest work, especially if it were a 10-minute read. In his public presentations stretching back three years, President Trump has copycatted Fox News on a regular basis. Adopting the language of Schwarz's piece seems very in character for him, with an added aggressive wink-wink of one-upsmanship.
If dominating is the president's aspirational goal, perhaps next time he could don some latex and heels, carry a bible in one hand and a whip in the other. Not only would he dominate TV ratings, he wouldn't even have to give a speech. Just crack that whip.
Bob Dietz
June 3, 2020
I'm one of those folks who's always trying to read between the lines or figure out what's meant by what hasn't been said. So I thought I'd pitch in and explain why the president has recently become so fond of the word "dominate," which has not previously been one of his go-to fave words.
On May 28, I recommended Tony Schwarz's "The Psychopath in Chief," published by Medium.com that same day. Schwarz was the president's ghostwriter for The Art of the Deal. Initially, Schwarz thought that Donald Trump was driven by narcissism to manufacture love and praise. Schwarz, however, has changed his mind. In his latest piece, he explains what he now thinks is the president's primary motivation.
"...what drives Trump more deeply: the need to dominate. His primary goal is to win at any cost and the end always justifies the means. Ultimately, he doesn't care what anyone else thinks or feels. For Trump, the choice between dominating and being loved -- saving himself or saving others -- is no contest."
Later Schwarz says, "He either wins or loses, dominates or submits" and "His obsession with domination and power have prompted Trump to tell lies more promiscuously than ever since he became president... ."
While it may be a coincidence that Schwartz's "dominating" appraisal of the president was followed days later by the president's new penchant for the word "dominate," I doubt it. The president's weekly reading list may be slim, but it would probably include his former ghostwriter's latest work, especially if it were a 10-minute read. In his public presentations stretching back three years, President Trump has copycatted Fox News on a regular basis. Adopting the language of Schwarz's piece seems very in character for him, with an added aggressive wink-wink of one-upsmanship.
If dominating is the president's aspirational goal, perhaps next time he could don some latex and heels, carry a bible in one hand and a whip in the other. Not only would he dominate TV ratings, he wouldn't even have to give a speech. Just crack that whip.
Bob Dietz
June 3, 2020
Tuesday, June 2, 2020
You're Never Too Old for a Revolution
"I say the future is ours...if you can count." from Cyrus' speech in The Warriors (1979)
"I've waited my whole life for this. The world's going to start over. I'MA BURN IT ALL." N'Jadaka (aka Erik Killmonger) in Black Panther (2018)
Many Americans seem shocked, shocked I tell you, to find that rampant racism runs through this society's veins, and even more shocked that people are actually doing something about it. I guess structural racism is another one of those things that my anthropologist friends tell me is a sacred cultural secret best not profaned by uttering out loud. Everyone knows it, of course, but it's impolite to acknowledge it in public. Or at least it was, before this particular president turned dog whistles into foghorns so folks could find their way through the smoke and the tear gas.
I find it surprising that anyone is surprised by any of this. The two new laws of nature that cell phone cameras have given us are that (1) contrary to all of those books and movies of the 70's and 80's, aliens are not abducting us, and (2) cops do an awful lot of brutal murderous stuff and usually get away with it.
The United States is structurally racist. There's no mystery to this. All you have to do is look at the very design of the government. There was a time when African-Americans counted as three-fifths of a person for purposes of representation. Well, one current consequence (perhaps the main consequence) of the electoral college is to make minority votes worth about nine-tenths of a white vote. I guess that's better than three-fifths, eh? But how is it not racist? Then we have the Senate, a body that by design provides equal clout for low population/low minority states and high population/high minority states. How is that not structurally racist?
If you're surprised by any of this -- the horrific murder of George Floyd, the demonstrations, the looting, then you've been watching too much Disney for the last 50 years. Wake up and smell the coffee. Police kill a thousand people a year in the United States. In the UK, they kill two. Minorities are overrepresented in the essential worker categories that are supposed to risk their lives during the pandemic. I'm not going to go on a stat rant here. If you want to see how few police are convicted of brutality each year, go look it up. But you won't. You know why? You don't want to know.
I'm surprised at how many people seem surprised by the events of this last week. I'm more surprised that every day of the last few decades hasn't been like this.
And I'm still not sure who I was rooting for in Black Panther, T'Challa or N'Jadaka. I hope I figure it out in time for the sequel.
Bob Dietz
June 2, 2020
"I've waited my whole life for this. The world's going to start over. I'MA BURN IT ALL." N'Jadaka (aka Erik Killmonger) in Black Panther (2018)
Many Americans seem shocked, shocked I tell you, to find that rampant racism runs through this society's veins, and even more shocked that people are actually doing something about it. I guess structural racism is another one of those things that my anthropologist friends tell me is a sacred cultural secret best not profaned by uttering out loud. Everyone knows it, of course, but it's impolite to acknowledge it in public. Or at least it was, before this particular president turned dog whistles into foghorns so folks could find their way through the smoke and the tear gas.
I find it surprising that anyone is surprised by any of this. The two new laws of nature that cell phone cameras have given us are that (1) contrary to all of those books and movies of the 70's and 80's, aliens are not abducting us, and (2) cops do an awful lot of brutal murderous stuff and usually get away with it.
The United States is structurally racist. There's no mystery to this. All you have to do is look at the very design of the government. There was a time when African-Americans counted as three-fifths of a person for purposes of representation. Well, one current consequence (perhaps the main consequence) of the electoral college is to make minority votes worth about nine-tenths of a white vote. I guess that's better than three-fifths, eh? But how is it not racist? Then we have the Senate, a body that by design provides equal clout for low population/low minority states and high population/high minority states. How is that not structurally racist?
If you're surprised by any of this -- the horrific murder of George Floyd, the demonstrations, the looting, then you've been watching too much Disney for the last 50 years. Wake up and smell the coffee. Police kill a thousand people a year in the United States. In the UK, they kill two. Minorities are overrepresented in the essential worker categories that are supposed to risk their lives during the pandemic. I'm not going to go on a stat rant here. If you want to see how few police are convicted of brutality each year, go look it up. But you won't. You know why? You don't want to know.
I'm surprised at how many people seem surprised by the events of this last week. I'm more surprised that every day of the last few decades hasn't been like this.
And I'm still not sure who I was rooting for in Black Panther, T'Challa or N'Jadaka. I hope I figure it out in time for the sequel.
Bob Dietz
June 2, 2020
COVID-19 Reality Scorecard
"The prophecies from the Trump administration have failed. In fact, they have failed miserably. Make no mistake, however, there will be far-fetched prophecies to come. And no shortage of believers." Bob Dietz (May 2, 2020)
"We'll be at 100,000, 110,000 -- the lower level of what was projected if we did the shutdown." President Trump (May 8, 2020)
"The Trumpian number, according to me, might last until the end of May, maybe, hopefully." Bob Dietz (May 10, 2020)
Well, that was pretty much spot on -- by me, not the president. The end of May figures, which are almost assuredly an undercount, managed to perfectly straddle President Trump's 100,000 and 110,000. We ended May with 105,000 "official" COVID-19 deaths, despite all kinds of accounting shenanigans by Georgia and Florida. The president's prediction, unfortunately, was for the total deaths at pandemic's end. I was giving my estimate for the end of May.
For the last couple of weeks, the president appears to have abandoned his pandemic predicting. Good decision on his part. You would think with the best scientific minds in the world at his disposal, he'd occasionally get something close to correct. But no such luck.
As for me, I wish college football handicapping were this easy. Pay attention, read a few things, identify actual experts, listen to them, put it all together. What a sweatless gig. You'd think all those educated GOP dudes would have caught on by now.
Bob Dietz
June 2, 2020
"We'll be at 100,000, 110,000 -- the lower level of what was projected if we did the shutdown." President Trump (May 8, 2020)
"The Trumpian number, according to me, might last until the end of May, maybe, hopefully." Bob Dietz (May 10, 2020)
Well, that was pretty much spot on -- by me, not the president. The end of May figures, which are almost assuredly an undercount, managed to perfectly straddle President Trump's 100,000 and 110,000. We ended May with 105,000 "official" COVID-19 deaths, despite all kinds of accounting shenanigans by Georgia and Florida. The president's prediction, unfortunately, was for the total deaths at pandemic's end. I was giving my estimate for the end of May.
For the last couple of weeks, the president appears to have abandoned his pandemic predicting. Good decision on his part. You would think with the best scientific minds in the world at his disposal, he'd occasionally get something close to correct. But no such luck.
As for me, I wish college football handicapping were this easy. Pay attention, read a few things, identify actual experts, listen to them, put it all together. What a sweatless gig. You'd think all those educated GOP dudes would have caught on by now.
Bob Dietz
June 2, 2020
Monday, June 1, 2020
Drowning Out the Ominous
The week-long protests have drowned out what would have been COVID-19 headlines. Recent developments listed below are all connected, and not in a good way.
First, in a Helen Branswell interview for STAT, Dr. Fauci reported that the task force meetings have been cut back, and his interactions with the president have been reduced from three or four times a week. Fauci has not seen the president in two weeks. This is the initial clue in which direction we're headed.
Second, as reported by CNN, the CDC has begun regular public briefings. President Trump avoids responsibility and bad outcomes like the not-so-proverbial plague, so he has handed off the public face of the crisis to the CDC. Bad outcomes are assuredly on the itinerary, then, and probably not long in arriving. If we were looking at rosy outcomes and optimism, the president's smiling countenance would be front and center, giving us all the good news.
Third, I want to pass along a report from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. It's the Imperial College of London's "Report 23: State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States." The study analyzes data through May 20 and was published May 24.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf
Bear in mind that this report does not take into account Memorial Day weekend crowd issues and their impact.
When we combine these three pieces of information, the handwriting is on the wall in glowing neon. Flash bangs, tear gas, and flames may temporarily obscure that handwriting, but brace yourselves. The tea leaves are beyond ominous. For many states such as Florida, Texas, Georgia, and Arkansas, the pandemic has begun embellishing its already lethal reputation.
Bob Dietz
June 1, 2020
First, in a Helen Branswell interview for STAT, Dr. Fauci reported that the task force meetings have been cut back, and his interactions with the president have been reduced from three or four times a week. Fauci has not seen the president in two weeks. This is the initial clue in which direction we're headed.
Second, as reported by CNN, the CDC has begun regular public briefings. President Trump avoids responsibility and bad outcomes like the not-so-proverbial plague, so he has handed off the public face of the crisis to the CDC. Bad outcomes are assuredly on the itinerary, then, and probably not long in arriving. If we were looking at rosy outcomes and optimism, the president's smiling countenance would be front and center, giving us all the good news.
Third, I want to pass along a report from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. It's the Imperial College of London's "Report 23: State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States." The study analyzes data through May 20 and was published May 24.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf
Bear in mind that this report does not take into account Memorial Day weekend crowd issues and their impact.
When we combine these three pieces of information, the handwriting is on the wall in glowing neon. Flash bangs, tear gas, and flames may temporarily obscure that handwriting, but brace yourselves. The tea leaves are beyond ominous. For many states such as Florida, Texas, Georgia, and Arkansas, the pandemic has begun embellishing its already lethal reputation.
Bob Dietz
June 1, 2020
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