Kentucky Derby Postscript

I discussed the 2019 Kentucky Derby with people who have 30-year histories of betting significant amounts (and have managed some six figure paydays), some folks who own and race thoroughbreds, and people who regularly qualify for the NTRA World Handicapping Championships, the NHC.

Now that Luis Saez, Maximum Security's jockey, has been suspended for 15 race days, one would think we'd have a sense of Derby clarity. I'm not sure that is the case.

"I've seen worse," is a routine response regarding the Saez ride that resulted in Derby disqualification. One owner added, "I've seen worse, and been taken down for less." A general consensus of owners, trainers, and jockeys seems to be that Maximum Security did enough wrong to be taken down. The 2019 context probably plays into this for a couple of reasons. The spate of horse deaths at Santa Anita has resulted in an amplified sensitivity to safety concerns for all of horse racing. In fact, the pre-Derby Friday USA Today feature story -- for the entire paper, not the sports section -- was a report on racehorse safety and what could be done. This piece, straddling the weekend USA Today edition, ran the day before the Derby. It was unlikely that any jockey, including Saez (who has a history of grey area riding), would be allowed any kind of high risk, bumper car trip.

American racing is also trying to appeal to the Chinese and Japanese racing demographics. Racing in those countries, where the pools can dwarf American pools, is very clean. Rough riding is not allowed. Neither are race fixing and most pharmaceuticals, but those are discussions for another day. Bettors in China and Japan are used to a certain clean style of racing, and would be alienated by too much weaving and banging.

It was a really bad public relations context in which to rough ride. Had War of Will gone down, American racing would have suffered a true disaster, as any number of other horses would also have gone down.

Although a horse racing civilian, I must report that I immediately suspected Maximum Security and Saez were in trouble. When the horseback interviewer trotted up to Saez after the finish, Saez's demeanor strongly suggested a problem. And when the first words out of Saez and owner Gary West's mouths had an apologist/explanatory spin, I figured that there was a real issue.

Interestingly, the Japanese pools, which are separate from American pools, had an enormous amount of Maximum Security money, knocking him down to a 2-1 favorite. The Japanese were right...until they weren't.


Bob Dietz -- May 15