Innumeracy Lunacy

"Right now we are heading to 50,000 and according to the projection we will end up with 60,000 by the end of the pandemic."  President Donald Trump (April 20, 2020)


Today, April 29, we passed 60,000 deaths.

On April 21st, in my entry Innumeracy, I explained that the 60K projection was "mythic" and "a mirage." Well we didn't even make it to the end of April. We didn't cap at 60,000 deaths. We didn't make it to August 4th. We certainly didn't make it to "the end of the pandemic," as the president said.

On Monday, April 27th, we received an update from the University of Washington model. Now they are projecting 74,000 deaths.

Hmm. Well, I'll say it once again. I'm going to go out on a limb here. I realize that a poor professional gambler has no business refuting the University of Washington and the White House, but I'm pretty damned sure we're being massaged with nonsense. Maybe I'm wrong, and deaths will plummet, stopping cold, and all will be well with the world. But who's kidding who? The model estimate is pure hokum.

What is going on here? Why are we being fed numbers like this? First, allow me to explain the editorial process. We are being given numbers from the most optimistic of all available models. Then we are being given the very low end of the range of projection from the rosiest model. It's statistical bullshit.

As I said March 26 in Approval Numbers:  Psych 101, the way to get high approval numbers is to (1) tell people what they want to hear, (2) express as optimistic a view as possible, and (3) create a sense of faux control by assigning numbers and dates, even if it's all just blowing smoke.

Every news source that relies on ad revenue is now stuck in a Catch 22. If you give people a sense of the reality to come, if you explain that we are in month two of a two-year process, nobody will want to watch you. People are frustrated, they are depressed, they are scared. Presenting reality to viewers is not going to sell tickets. Why do you think alternative projection models aren't all over the news cycle, given the horrific inaccuracy of the U of W go-to model?

Americans need to hear the truth, whether we can handle it or not. Without honest information, we cannot plan what to do with our lives. The total death projection is now an alleged 74,000. Did they confuse the end of the pandemic with the end of May? I watched the model spokesperson on CNN Monday. Nonverbally, he reminded me of a used car salesman who just realized he had been trying to sell a car to another used car salesman. He was now just going through the motions. Verbally, he avoided attaching dates to the projection.

The projection, as I said, is now 74,000 for the pandemic. That number is laughable. How stupid do they think we are?


April 29, 2020
Bob Dietz