The Man Who Wouldn't Cry Wolf

"We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It's going to be just fine."   President Donald Trump (January 22)


I'm a layman. I handicap sporting events for a living. As far as superpowers go, I have the ability to read. That's about it. So I have to ask myself, how could I nail the COVID-19 timeline and projections so closely while the President of the United States of America could be so wrong? How is that even possible?


"We're going very substantially down, not up."  President Donald Trump (February 26)

I had one last flight to take in February, and I had read the reports coming from China. I wore disposable gloves, but as I made my way through both the Las Vegas and Charlotte airports, I realized how indefensible air travel was from the virus. It was literally impossible to feel safe. Every inch of surface and every cubic foot of air were potential infection sources crisscrossed by hundreds of people. Going through security, my bag and personal effects shared contact surfaces with every other person who chose that conveyor belt or plastic tray. This didn't even address the issue of being in the planes themselves.

Back at home on February 29, I read the international news. Even as a layman, when I saw the stunning infection explosions in Iran and Italy, I figured one of two things. Either the virus was airborne or asymptomatic transmission was happening a lot. If the latter, this meant that the fever screenings at airports, casinos, and banks was really all for naught.

My girlfriend and I knew what was coming, so we shut down our social lives, stockpiled what we needed, and began isolating mail and deliveries in the garage where they could be cleaned. We figured this stuff out for ourselves, days before it became nationwide protocol. Someone was wrong, either us or the president. We hoped it was us, but we didn't think so.

And now it's here, and I ask again, how could a layman be a month ahead of a president? How could that possibly ever happen? Frankly, I don't believe that it can. I think this was a case of people who knew keeping that reality from the American people for as long as they could. Now that reality has arrived.

Just because the man wouldn't cry wolf, however, should not have kept his followers from using their eyes. An NPR poll conducted March 14 and 15 yielded 40% of Republicans grading the virus as a serious threat and 54% saying the public was overreacting. Among Democrats,76% of those polled reported the virus as a serious threat.

The follow-up questions are fascinating and will be examined for generations to come. Evidence was in full view for anyone who could read, so who will Republicans blame for their faulty judgements? Fox News embarrassed itself for a month, to what end? And how does a president deal with his own words on camera repeatedly making light of the most devastating human event of this century? How does he maintain any credibility whatsoever?

For me personally, I've been amazed at the ability of people to actively ignore information bearing down on them like an avalanche. Are Americans so easily duped, or as Jack Nicholson's Colonel Nathan Jessup says, are they not able to handle the truth?

Over the last 40 years, one credo has served me particularly well in the world of gambling. I try to not believe anything I prefer to believe. Keeps me cynical. Keeps me self aware. Keeps me safe.


April 1, 2020
Bob Dietz