"137,000 deaths by August 4." IHME Model (May 9, 2020)
"The IHME number may make it to July 4th or thereabouts." Bob Dietz (May 10, 2020)
Depending on which tally one uses, the U.S. hit 137,000 deaths from COVID-19 sometime between July 11 and July 15. I was off by between seven and 11 days, if one ungenerously ignores the "or thereabouts" part of my quote.
The University of Washington associated IHME model, at the time, said 137,000 by August 4. The IHME model was off by three weeks, at best. This is as close as the IHME came to out-predicting me.
Not much trick to this. In the early days of the pandemic, the Trump administration trotted out the model with the least projected deaths. The IHME received quite a bit of publicity for months, even though their models always (and I do mean always) predicted fewer deaths than actually had occurred at each date. If you bet the OVER every time the IHME made a projection, you swept the wagers.
President Trump, meanwhile, said on May 8, "We'll be at 100,000, 110,000," and he was talking about the entirety of the pandemic, not just to August 4.
It took about two months for American media to begin surveying various models as opposed to focusing exclusively on IHME numbers. Those alternative numbers were available from the start, albeit without White House blessing.
Another Prediction
I cannot believe we are at this juncture. The great American health care system reduced to the status of, if you'll pardon the expression, a Wuhan fire drill. A completely disorganized joke. Take a narcissistic president, a pitiably sycophantic collection of GOP governors, adult civilians who would last about 24 hours of the London blitz, and U.S. youngsters whose goal in life is evidently to channel Oedipus. Add them together, and our present reality is what you get.
Quite a mess. And it will get worse. How's that for a prediction?
Bob Dietz
July 19, 2020
