I'll address more numbers tomorrow, but I'll start this brief collection of observations with a mention of coronavirus case numbers.
It was only a matter of time until Texas and Florida cases eclipsed New Jersey and moved quickly into third and fourth place behind New York and California. What's stunning is that Georgia and Arizona have blown past Pennsylvania this week. It's actually very surprising given the populations. This speaks to the exceptional failure of red state governors to evaluate the threat facing them. Georgia and Arizona butchered the process of handling COVID-19. In point of fact, they did nothing by the CDC or task force book. Virtually every decision these states made has been wrong from a health care perspective.
My second comment is simply that I'd like to mention the danger inherent in crowds present for both the president's D.C. speech and the accompanying protests. Now was not the time for either.
Third, regarding the Mt. Rushmore speech last night. I have no particular comments regarding the content. I was just looking at the design of the site for the speech. I believe that the stage and podium were basically a killing field. Any virus in the air was likely to carry down to the stage. Despite being outdoors, the set design may have likely been more dangerous to the president than the Tulsa rally scenario. I think that the president put himself in significant danger. The outdoor setting may not have ameliorated the risk much at all.
Here's some predictions going forward, and they're just a little bit ironic. Despite President Trump mentioning the wall in the Mt. Rushmore speech, I suspect we will not hear much about the wall for the next month. The public is going to discover that Mexico is shutting down entry points to keep America's COVID-soaked citizens at bay. Mexico is trying to keep the criminally stupid, diseased Americans out. Turns out the wall may be a convenience for Mexico, at least for the next few months. Also, we may not hear much about the president's one intelligent early-COVID move, namely banning some travel from China. It's tough to brag about that when the United States is the country now banned for its failures to control the virus.
When the pandemic began, I was pessimistic regarding United States leaders and citizenry. I did not think they would strategize well or cope well. The reality is actually much worse than I imagined. The EU banning American travelers? This is an indictment of how truly horrendous the U.S. response has been. Unbelievable, really. And who would have dreamed two months ago that New York would require Bible Belt red state tourists to quarantine themselves if traveling north?
I'm not sure that I've ever witnessed a country's strategic capability and judgement disintegrate so quickly. The scary thing? July 5 figures to be worse than July 4.
Bob Dietz
July 4, 2020
