Sometimes you get something right as rain, and you still don't make any money.
I spent considerable time prepping for the 1-AA spring football season and watching as many games as possible. I had a plan and thought it was a good one.
North Dakota State, riding a 38-game winning streak heading into the 2021 spring season, had won three consecutive FCS national championships. They had, in fact, won eight of the last nine. Much more dominant than Alabama over the same stretch of time, North Dakota State figured to be somewhere between 6-5 and 8-5 to win the 2021 spring title.
I, however, didn't think North Dakota State was going to be nearly as dominant this spring as they had been since 2011. But I couldn't find any FCS title odds offshore before the spring season kicked off, so I was going to have to wait until the truncated season finished to bet some long shots. With the playoff field reduced to 16 teams from the usual 24, I would have to be patient and judicious in choosing which teams matched up well with North Dakota State.
And then the roof caved in. For my plan to work, I needed the Bison to go undefeated or lose one close game during the regular season. North Dakota State opened by beating a Youngstown State team with just two returning offensive starters. The Bison went up 25-0, won 25-7, and I wasn't sure if ND State had just laid on them (like a wrestler or Alabama in an early non-conference game) or if ND State had real offensive issues themselves. The second Bison game was at Southern Illinois, which had been drilled opening week by North Dakota 44-21. Southern Illinois was therefore a 16-point home underdog to the Bison.
Unfortunately, the Salukis kicked the hell out of ND State 38-14. Yowza. And it had not an iota of fluke to it.
So my best laid plans of plugging in some live title contenders at 15-1 or better bit the dust hard. All the value of going against North Dakota State drained like hot chili out of Tub Girl (if you don't get the reference, do yourself a favor and DO NOT look it up). All of my prep, pretty much wasted. I had been right, but unfortunately I had been too right.
Nothing ventured and nothing gained, as it turns out. And on we go.
Bob Dietz
March 7, 2021
