As the United States approaches 100 million fully vaccinated adults, restrictions are being lifted once again. Some states are pushing for full capacity restaurants and sporting events, and for the lifting of mask-wearing rules. As was the case in 2020, the red states are leading the way in the "back to normalcy" push.
Conditions, however, aren't necessarily rosy red in these red states. Here in Tennessee, for example, fewer than 25% have been fully vaccinated, and Tennessee is one of those states where this week's infection count significantly rose from last week. In fact, Tennessee recorded a 25% increase in cases from the previous week, which places it worst in the country. Oregon, Arizona, Nevada (where casinos are ready to increase capacity levels to 80% on May 1), and Louisiana are also struggling. The United States is registering roughly 60,000 new cases per day overall, which is similar to the counts last summer. The per day U.S. infection count had been at 50,000 six weeks ago.
The surge in new cases may be attributable to the increased transmissibility of variants and the fact that younger people are now both primary spreaders of the virus and increasingly vulnerable to the variants. Also, in a somewhat overlooked study published March 23 in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, investigators laid out the correlation between high pollen counts and susceptibility to the virus. High pollen counts depress immune systems, and increased airborne pollen has been shown to increase infection rates.
Meanwhile, in India, the health care systems have been overwhelmed as numbers have reached more than 300,000 infections and 2,000 deaths per day. India is approaching 200,000 total Covid-19 deaths. For context, the United States peaked at 300,000 infections per day in January, and total U.S. Covid-19 deaths stand at roughly 580,000.
Despite infection numbers similar to 2020's summer infection numbers, the U.S. is staggering into a reopening redux. With polls revealing that 30% of the country would prefer to not be vaccinated, predicting future infection rates promises to be extremely difficult. Tennessee may turn out to be the testing ground for the interaction of reopening and resistance to vaccination.
Bob Dietz
April 27, 2021
