I rarely bet the NBA. Maybe once a decade I take an NBA future, and these have worked out well, but unless I see something making me an offer I cannot refuse, I steer clear.
I do, however, scan the playoff box scores and such, and at the conclusion of the Monday, May 1st games, I realized that I was looking at a truly anomalous set of statistics, about as rare as death by reptile.
My discovery went something like this. The Sixers had upset the Celtics in Game One of their best-of-seven. I decided to glance through the numbers and see how a Philly team without Embiid had done it. The result itself hadn't been terribly surprising, as I felt any team with an X-factor like Harden has a shot in any given game. But these stats, they were truly something else.
The Numbers
First I looked at Boston's field goal percentage. They had lost; maybe they had an off night from the floor. I gagged. They had shot 58.7% from the field. Holy hell. Teams almost never lose shooting 58.7% from the floor, especially in playoff games.
Next I thought, "Well, maybe they bricked some free throws or perhaps they just didn't shoot many." I halfway choked. The Celtics had shot 94.4%, making 17 of 18. The Sixers had shot just 12, making all of them.
Okay, so how did Boston lose? The next theory was that maybe Philly killed them on the boards. Nope. Boston outrebounded the Sixers by 10, 38 to 28. Yowza and double yowza.
I had never seen a team at any level, high school, college, or professional, pull off that statistical trifecta and lose a game. Boston shot almost 59% from the floor, 94.4% from the line while shooting more free throws, and had a plus-10 rebound margin. And lost. Unbelievable. I was looking at stats that may never be repeated by a losing NBA team again.
What Does It Mean?
Damned if I know. It's a massive statistical anomaly. When the Allegheny, the Monongahela, and Ohio Rivers join, this kind of statistical confluence should result in a one-sided win for Boston. Amazing.
As to what happens next (and Game Two is in progress as I write this), well, if Boston puts up numbers like that every game, they should win every game. With Embiid returning and Harden still an X-Man, however, I can't bet on it. Or maybe I can.
All I know for certain is that I will likely never again see stats like that conjoined with a result like that in my lifetime. It's always good to recognize a white crow when you see one.
Bob Dietz
May 3, 2023
