Reopening Redux

As the United States approaches 100 million fully vaccinated adults, restrictions are being lifted once again. Some states are pushing for full capacity restaurants and sporting events, and for the lifting of mask-wearing rules. As was the case in 2020, the red states are leading the way in the "back to normalcy" push. 

Conditions, however, aren't necessarily rosy red in these red states. Here in Tennessee, for example, fewer than 25% have been fully vaccinated, and Tennessee is one of those states where this week's infection count significantly rose from last week. In fact, Tennessee recorded a 25% increase in cases from the previous week, which places it worst in the country. Oregon, Arizona, Nevada (where casinos are ready to increase capacity levels to 80% on May 1), and Louisiana are also struggling. The United States is registering roughly 60,000 new cases per day overall, which is similar to the counts last summer. The per day U.S. infection count had been at 50,000 six weeks ago.

The surge in new cases may be attributable to the increased transmissibility of variants and the fact that younger people are now both primary spreaders of the virus and increasingly vulnerable to the variants. Also, in a somewhat overlooked study published March 23 in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, investigators laid out the correlation between high pollen counts and susceptibility to the virus. High pollen counts depress immune systems, and increased airborne pollen has been shown to increase infection rates.

Meanwhile, in India, the health care systems have been overwhelmed as numbers have reached more than 300,000 infections and 2,000 deaths per day. India is approaching 200,000 total Covid-19 deaths. For context, the United States peaked at 300,000 infections per day in January, and total U.S. Covid-19 deaths stand at roughly 580,000.

Despite infection numbers similar to 2020's summer infection numbers, the U.S. is staggering into a reopening redux. With polls revealing that 30% of the country would prefer to not be vaccinated, predicting future infection rates promises to be extremely difficult. Tennessee may turn out to be the testing ground for the interaction of reopening and resistance to vaccination.

Bob Dietz

April 27, 2021

Spring Football 2021 -- Best Laid Plans

Sometimes you get something right as rain, and you still don't make any money.

I spent considerable time prepping for the 1-AA spring football season and watching as many games as possible. I had a plan and thought it was a good one.

North Dakota State, riding a 38-game winning streak heading into the 2021 spring season, had won three consecutive FCS national championships. They had, in fact, won eight of the last nine. Much more dominant than Alabama over the same stretch of time, North Dakota State figured to be somewhere between 6-5 and 8-5 to win the 2021 spring title. 

I, however, didn't think North Dakota State was going to be nearly as dominant this spring as they had been since 2011. But I couldn't find any FCS title odds offshore before the spring season kicked off, so I was going to have to wait until the truncated season finished to bet some long shots. With the playoff field reduced to 16 teams from the usual 24, I would have to be patient and judicious in choosing which teams matched up well with North Dakota State. 

And then the roof caved in. For my plan to work, I needed the Bison to go undefeated or lose one close game during the regular season. North Dakota State opened by beating a Youngstown State team with just two returning offensive starters. The Bison went up 25-0, won 25-7, and I wasn't sure if ND State had just laid on them (like a wrestler or Alabama in an early non-conference game) or if ND State had real offensive issues themselves. The second Bison game was at Southern Illinois, which had been drilled opening week by North Dakota 44-21. Southern Illinois was therefore a 16-point home underdog to the Bison.

Unfortunately, the Salukis kicked the hell out of ND State 38-14. Yowza. And it had not an iota of fluke to it.

So my best laid plans of plugging in some live title contenders at 15-1 or better bit the dust hard. All the value of going against North Dakota State drained like hot chili out of Tub Girl (if you don't get the reference, do yourself a favor and DO NOT look it up). All of my prep, pretty much wasted. I had been right, but unfortunately I had been too right.

Nothing ventured and nothing gained, as it turns out. And on we go.

Bob Dietz

March 7, 2021

Trans Wars: Newman vs. Greene

When I first started writing this blog, I promised to offend as many people as possible in the time I have left. This entry should go quite a ways towards doing just that.

On February 24, Illinois Rep. Marie Newman hung a pink and blue transgender pride flag outside of her office. Newman's daughter, Evie, is transgender. That same evening, in response, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene hung a sign outside her office door, which is directly across the hallway from Newman. The sign said, "There are Two genders: MALE & FEMALE. 'Trust the Science!'" Greene had earlier tried to block the Equality Act, which bans LGBTQ discrimination. 

I have neither the inclination, nor the time, nor the omniscience to say who is more correct or incorrect regarding transgender rights. But I am fascinated by the language used and the presentation of this material by (and I despise this phrase) "mainstream media."

As I said, I despise the phrase "mainstream media," so I'll address specifics. People.com displayed the headline "Lawmaker with Transgender Daughter Responds to Colleague's Transphobic Sign Outside Her Office." If Greene's sign had said, "There are Two sexes," then I would have found People's use of the word "Transphobic" problematic. Had Greene said, "There are Two sexes," she would have been technically wrong (chromosomally, there are at least half a dozen), but the phrase on the sign would not have been transphobic per se. Greene, however, with her usual judgement, chose to go full friction by saying "Two genders," which is indeed a clear cut diss of transgender people. Thus, upon review, use of the word "Transphobic" in the People headline is appropriate.

In People's opening paragraph, we then find "by mocking Newman's transgender daughter with a transphobic sign outside her office." The word "mocking" has recently become a default red flag go-to verb to boost readers' blood pressures. And sure enough, another default verb, "slammed," appears later in the piece. Writers can't ruffle readers' feathers without at least one "mocked" and a "slammed" per page these days.

In any event, Greene chose to say "Two genders" on her sign, which was both inflammatory and wrong, Even I know that gender is societally or individually defined, meaning there could technically be an unlimited array of genders.

As usual, what does NOT get said in an article tells you as much as what does. The People piece skipped what seemed to be the most logical of Greene's transgender concerns. A CNN piece covering this skirmish quotes Greene, "Biological women cannot compete against biological men. Biological little girls cannot compete against biological little boys and they shouldn't have to." Greene was referring to physical competition, specifically sports.

I have no idea how the transgender lobby, if there is such a thing, can respond to this. As a male who has been on the track and on the basketball court against females, I see any biologically born male competing in women's sports as completely inappropriate from a competitive standpoint. 

Conclusion

Marjorie Taylor Greene is an out and out nutcase with zero respect for the scientific method. Having said that, the tone of both the People and CNN pieces seemed very Hulk-ish: "Trans good; anti-trans bad." I don't understand why ostensibly neutral news organizations should craft news pieces with such explicit tone. It echoes Fox News.

It's not as if we know that today's moral absolutism will stand the test of history regarding usefulness or humanistic consequences. On topics like transgenderism, both left and right are trying to make arguments by flexing purely authoritarian muscles. 

Newman's daughter is a 19-year-old college freshman. She transitioned five years ago. How many 14-year-olds have the wisdom to choose their life arc or should be entrusted to do so? I have neither the inclination, nor the time, nor the omniscience to know. But, if pressed, I can hazard a guess.

Bob Dietz

February 3, 2021

Articles of Note and Recognizing Statistical Context

Various incarnations of Dr. Michele Gelfand's work examining cultural styles and pandemic consequences have appeared for the last month in assorted venues. I'm recommending a read of her paper in The Lancet (Planetary Health) titled "The relationship between cultural tightness-looseness and Covid-19 cases and deaths: a global analysis." The paper was published January 29. I'm also recommending an opinion piece by Gelfand published in The Guardian on February 1. This brief but informative latter piece fleshes out the implications of Gelfand's work for a general audience and is titled, "Why countries with 'loose,' rule-breaking cultures have been hit harder by Covid."

Gelfand's work provides a broad, expert perspective on the effects cultural personas have had on real world virus consequences. The articles listed above broach the issue of how cultures that have not experienced recent threats fail to react to new threats in a timely, prudent manner.

These pieces by Gelfand make their own arguments clearly, and I'm not going to obfuscate their clarity with my personal prattling.

Simplistic Superficial Stats

I wanted to tackle talking points that have popped up here in the states regarding relationships between Covid-19 stats and shut-downs. The talking points are usually in defense of red-tinged locales' decision-making or lack thereof. These talking points argue against many of Gelfand's conclusions, so I'll address them.

People who are severely critical of shut downs (I'll call them "shut-down deniers") argue that U.S. stats don't currently demonstrate that states' looseness or tightness regarding shut downs and mask-wearing affected infection rates or deaths. The shut-down deniers are saying, in essence, that California and New York had the most onerous restrictions so they should have had lower infection and death rates. I realize that this seems a very naive position, but I have actually encountered professional gamblers (quite fluent in practical statistics) who make these arguments until they are blue in the face. Their political worldviews color their ability to ask the most basic statistical questions.

This is one of those situations where the fact that no correlation exists between more stringent rules and better virus results actually makes the point that the more stringent rules worked. Some of the reasons are obvious.

First, the more stringent rules and longer shutdown areas contain large urban centers. Because urban centers have higher population densities, the transmission opportunities and larger daily virus load exposures should lead to higher transmission and death rates. Shutdowns and tighter regulations have the net effect of creating an environment that mimics lower population density. If locales containing urban centers don't have massively higher transmission and death rates, this demonstrates that the regulations were indeed effective. 

Second, because urban areas are landing points for international visitors carrying the virus initially and now carrying variants, the expectation should again be that locales with urban centers should yield much higher transmission and death rates.

Third, regulations in all of the United States, both red and blue, were quite relaxed compared to almost all other countries, and especially compared to countries rated "tight" by Gelfand. The perception of U.S. rule variation is exaggerated by the very parochial American perspective. Most everything in the U.S. has, compared to other countries, been undisciplined and loose. 

Fourth, the variants are likely embedded deeply in major urban areas and have not yet penetrated much into places like Montana or the Dakotas. 

Fifth and most important, the shutdown deniers here in the U.S. have to forcibly ignore all of the evidence from everywhere else in the world. That's a tough hurdle, but self-absorbed Americans seem to have a knack for it.

All of these points are, again, quite obvious, and actually make a strong case that more stringent rules have been useful.

Conclusion

The lack of overall context inherent in the deniers' position reminds me of a parallel argument in sport science. About 15 years ago, researchers argued against the existence of a real world "hot hand" in basketball and claimed it was all an illusion. The very basic NBA stats used in the analyses were presented without context. A lack of correlation was taken as evidence to prove the position. When context was painted in, however, the lack of simplistic correlation turned out to be evidence for a real world "hot hand," although not for a simple statistical "hot hand."

Sometime in the next month, since it's March Madness, I'll return to the hoops studies and explain their debunking. It's one of my favorite statistical rants.

For now, however, I'll wrap things up by saying that a lack of simple, clear-cut correlations between U.S. city or state regulations and transmission/death rates does not mean that those regulations had no consequences. The lack of simple correlations is actually evidence that the more stringent rules and shutdowns worked. Political prisms are generating arguments without statistical context, and the arguments are largely wrong. 

Bob Dietz

March 2, 2021

Articles of Note and Deep Thoughts

The "Articles of Note" entries are intended to point readers to some insightful pieces of writing that may get lost in the wash of louder, immediate news. My "Deep Thoughts" comments are, as usual, obvious observations regarding the articles. The "Deep Thoughts" moniker is an homage to the SNL skits of the same name.

One remarkably illuminating piece was by Katherine Stewart, "The Roots of Josh Hawley's Rage." It appeared January 11 in The New York Times."  Because of the blooming, buzzing confusion of the January 6 riot, Stewart's article may not have gotten the attention it deserved.

I'll quote a couple of excerpts before offering my deep thoughts. Pelagius (A.D. 354-418) was a British monk. Hawley was giving a commencement address in 2019:

"Mr. Hawley denounced Pelagius for teaching that human beings have the freedom to choose how they live their lives and that grace comes to those who do good things, as opposed to those who believe the right doctrines."

Later in the piece, Stewart quotes from a 2017 Hawley speech,

"That is our charge. To take the lordship of Christ, that message, into the public realm, and to seek the obedience of the nations. Of our nation!"

Stewart was able to connect the Hawley dots for me in a concise and compelling way. Hawley is just another authoritarian psycho in religious clothing. His response to the irresistible U.S. demographic shift is to impose minority (in this case, white evangelical) views on the U.S. population via sanctioned authoritarianism. As such, Hawley is just a thread (albeit a neon one) in the overarching dynamics of a minority trying to impose behaviors on a majority of Americans.

The philosophical "Deep Thoughts" of Hawley and his compatriots are crudely obvious rationales for excusing their attempts to seek raw power over those of not-like mind. And of course, in their philosophical musings, the people who don't do good things aren't required to share the wealth because they believe the right doctrines. 

I think, as we try to understand the GOP and white nationalism going forward, it will be useful to start from the default position that most actions are simply blatant power grabs for a minority group, namely white evangelicals. That perspective clears away many of the rhetorical weeds jamming our analytical mowers.

Bob Dietz

February 23, 2021

Juxtaposition

Last Thursday, February 4, the United States suffered 5,077 Covid-19 fatalities. This was the largest single-day death toll thus far. Although diagnoses of infection have been falling, deaths (which usually lag by a couple of weeks) have not.

Today, February 11, the death statistics again appear to be broaching record territory. I will hold off on commenting about what this implies until final tallies have been recorded and examined. 

Also last Thursday, Donald Trump submitted a letter to the Screen Actors Guild. Evidently he had learned that he was about to be booted from the union, and in his never-ending quest to disallow anyone from dissing him first, he decided to attempt an "I'm breaking up with you first" bit of publicity.

This was the former president of the United States, on a day he knew was the worst of the pandemic, spending time and energy to play spin-master with the Screen Actors Guild. His sense of priorities, his lack of empathy or solemnity for the raw awfulness of the moment, his usual self-absorption and anesthetized sensibilities, were all on display. I present the letter verbatim, so readers can share in the insulated and unintentionally comical wonder that is Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States. 

"Ms. Carteris:

I write to you today regarding the so-called Disciplinary Committee hearing aimed at revoking my union membership. Who cares!

While I'm not familiar with your work, I'm very proud of my work on movies such as Home Alone 2, Zoolander and Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps; and television shows including The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, Saturday Night Live and of course, one of the most successful shows in television history, The Apprentice -- to name just a few!

I've also greatly helped the cable news television business (said to be a dying platform with not much time left until I got involved in politics), and created thousands of jobs at networks such as MSDNC and Fake News CNN, among many others.

Which brings me to your blatant attempt at free media attention to distract from your dismal record as a union. Your organization has done little for its members, and nothing for me -- besides collecting dues and promoting dangerous un-American policies and ideas -- as evident by your massive unemployment rates and lawsuits from celebrated actors, who even recorded a video asking, "Why isn't the union fighting for me?"

These, however, are policy failures. Your disciplinary failures are even more egregious.

I no longer wish to be associated with your union.

As such, this letter is to inform you of my immediate resignation from SAG-AFTRA. You have done nothing for me."

I had a difficult time, reading this letter the first time, believing that Trump had actually written it. It sounded like something The Onion might have put out there in cyber space as a skewering dig. But no, the former American president wrote it, and then sent it on the day of the worst death toll from the pandemic. 

More than 70 million Americans voted for this man. The wonder and horror of that fact never grows old. It is a bit jarring to realize, at the age of 63, that one has spent the entirety of life in The Asylum. I'm not sure that I prefer having been stupidly unaware of my bunkmates' psychiatric issues to actually being one of the mentally challenged, but one thing is certain. I still have much to learn, even in The Asylum.

Bob Dietz

February 11, 2021

Another Saturday in The Asylum

Just another week of antics and pratfalls worthy of DSM-5 inclusion. First, your favorite and mine, the inimitable Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, proclaimed that she was "just like many regular Americans." See, this is what I've been arguing for months. There's nothing discernibly different about Greene that would set her apart from her northwest Georgia compatriots (and I do mean patriots).Green's not some bizarro American outlier; she's representative of the red-blooded American southern spirit. She's been using her ouster from committees as a fund-raising tool, a la Mr. Trump. This keen entrepreneurial sense is what has made America great...again.

That entrepreneurial energy was even more in evidence with Missouri state representative Tricia Derges, who was indicted Monday for allegedly selling regenerative stem cell treatments without stem cells. Her nimble marketing even suggested that the treatment could help with Covid-19. She made 200K selling her schlock, and yes, of course she's a Republican. Democrats lack entrepreneurial spirit.

Finally, Thursday evening, the Los Angeles Lakers made their pitch for being "regular Americans," as two starters managed to air-ball free throws against Denver. In 20 years of recreational leagues, I never shot a free throw air ball, including the year I tore a ligament in my right hand and shot free throws underhanded, Rick Barry-style. One of the Laker air balls was courtesy of Lebron James, who then decided being a regular American was not for him as he led the Lakers on a 68-35 second half rampage for the convincing 114-93 win.

The Asylum is a special place, my friends. I just hope that the outer walls are high enough to withstand the tsunami that one of the resident physicians, Dr. Michael Osterholm, has warned is on the way. We shall see.

Bob Dietz

February 6, 2021