Approval Numbers: Psych 101

As the number of confirmed U.S. COVID-19 cases approaches 100,000 this evening, some have questioned why President Trump's approval rating has matched its all-time high. As the U.S. takes over the world's number one spot for confirmed cases, why does 60% of he public think he is doing a good job with COVID-19?

I'm not surprised in the least. This is exactly what I would have expected. It's basic Psych 101.

To get a high approval rating during this crisis, I expect a person to:

1) Tell people what they want to hear.
2) Express as optimistic a view as possible.
3) Create a sense of faux control by assigning timelines and specific dates to future results, even if it's just blowing smoke.

To get a low approval rating, I'd expect a person to:

1) Tell people what they do not want to hear.
2) Express a less than optimistic assessment.
3) Talk about the uncertainty and lack of control inherent in the situation.

Approval ratings aren't rocket science.

If the assigned dates and timelines become exposed as fallacious, one simply finds scapegoats on which to blame the results. When prophecies fail (to paraphrase the title of the Leon Festinger classic), those who believed rarely reject the prophet. They usually double down in their beliefs and buy into the next set of predictions and timelines. And this can occur again and again and again.

When COVID-19 swamps the 50% of America that thus far has been relatively unaffected and deaths hit five figures, perhaps attitudes and approval ratings may change. Even then, however, we will be told what we prefer to hear, and we will be fed timelines to salve our uncertainty.


March 26, 2020
Bob Dietz