Gambler's Eye: Coronavirus

I was reading CNN online today, March 14, when I stumbled upon a story, "People without symptoms may be driving spread." I was surprised, not by the title, but that this wasn't a given.

I had been following the COVID-19 story fairly closely since January, partly because I had a trip to Las Vegas scheduled to cash tickets and scout March Madness futures. I vetoed a trip immediately after Chinese New Year, when Las Vegas is a major international destination, and decided instead to duck in and out of Las Vegas February 24th to the 29th. I have been quite aware of the coronavirus issues and debates.

From everything I've read in the first two months, I'm somewhat surprised that people thought the asymptomatic were contributing little to the spread of the disease. I just automatically drew the conclusion, based on the explosions in Italy and Iran and the length of the potentially asymptomatic incubation period, that much if not most of the transmission was coming from individuals without many symptoms. It seemed obvious to me that this was the likely scenario. Yet the CDC, evidently, has used rhetoric suggesting that asymptomatic transmission is a small percentage contributor to disease spread. Today's CNN piece revealed that multiple studies, some not yet peer reviewed, point to asymptomatic transmission as not only quite common, but accounting for the majority of the cases in particular clusters.

Two days ago, the Wynn Casino in Las Vegas began temperature-screening guests. If you have a temp above 100.4, you are denied admittance. I read this and immediately asked, "What good does that do if most transmission is from people without clear symptoms?" It made no sense to me. Well, it turns out the Wynn was probably using CDC statements to design policy to keep their doors open, and those CDC statements are misleading if not outright incorrect.

The Wynn policy actually accomplishes very little. Similarly, I was baffled early this week when President Trump, who was asked why he hadn't been tested, answered that he felt great and had no symptoms. Did nobody explain asymptomatic transmission to him? How could anyone following the story of the swiftness of COVID-19 transmission blithely assume that asymptomatic transmission is a rarity? Isn't that counter to what one would expect?

Then I stepped back and realized that what I expect as a layman, given a certain volume and quality of information, may not be what most laymen expect. And this difference may be due to what I call a "gambler's perspective," which I explored a long time ago in an essay published in The Humanist called "Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians:  Allies Against the Irrational."

That essay aged fairly well and may have some useful ideas, mainly because irrationality has found a real home in 2020. So what I'll be exploring in the weeks ahead is what a gambler's perspective may have to offer in interpreting COVID-19 information (partial as it is), handling the uncertainty, coping with stress, and dealing with responsibilities and risks usually left for those in the military.


March 14, 2020
Bob Dietz