XFL: Drinking the Air Raid Kool Aid

I'm going to once again emphasize that sometimes things that superficially make a lot of sense do not really withstand closer examination. I'm Monday morning quarterbacking, but I think it's reasonable to do so.

The XFL knew it would need razzle dazzle offense to generate interest, so it wasn't surprising that it turned to some experienced names who have sold themselves for decades as offensive football revolutionaries.

Dallas has Bob Stoops as head coach with Hal Mumme, one of the "Air Raid" offense originators, as offensive coordinator. June Jones, the highest profile active run-and-shoot teacher, is head coach at Houston. Kevin Gilbride, who helmed the run-and-shoot offense of the Warren Moon-led Houston Oilers, is head coach of New York. Seattle is coached by Jim Zorn, not an air raid or run-and-shoot specialist, but certainly an advocate (in his playing days) of winging the ball all over the field. Norm Chow, the offensive coordinator of the LA Wildcats, also has a reputation as a pass offense Mensan. I feel that Chow is more conservative in his approach than those previously mentioned, but his public profile is still that of a pass offense gunslinger. Tampa Bay is helmed by Marc Trestman, the CFL offensive guru who discovered via his stint with the Chicago Bears that the NFL is not the CFL.

Thus, six of the eight XFL teams feature offenses that figured to fire the ball all over the field on virtually every down. Placing these coaches in their XFL positions should, superficially, guarantee shoot-'em-ups with plenty of offense. Well, it should if this were most college conferences or the CFL. But the XFL is not.

Before criticizing XFL ownership for drinking too much of the Air Raid Kool Aid in search of an exciting product, I want to point out the context in which decisions were made. Throughout 2019, ESPN, USA Today, and virtually every sports media outlet continually published lengthy pieces highlighting these kinds of offenses. Feature stories included the origin of the Air Raid (with Hal Mumme references), Washington State's Mike Leach's idiosyncrasies and coaching history, and analyses suggesting that the Patriots are actually succeeding because of  Air Raid principles. Pass offense puff pieces filled the 2019 sports pages.

The truth, however, is that the majority of the time, these offenses have not done well at the NFL, or even the SEC, level. Defenders are too fast, the field is too constricted given the players' size and quickness, and while yardage between the twenties is easy to come by, wins are not. The same applies to the Trestman offenses, born in the longer, wider fields of the CFL, with the CFL's slower players.

Additionally, the run-and-shoot itself has certain specific needs. Since most routes can be adjusted on the fly, experience between quarterbacks and receivers is a big deal. Nothing is more potentially disorganized on the college level than a run-and-shoot offense breaking in new receivers and a new quarterback. You can't, however, expect run-and-shoot coaches to emphasize the blind man's fire drill aspect of their offenses during job interviews.

It's easy to understand why the XFL made the decisions it did in terms of who it hired and what consequences were expected. Superficially, it all made sense.


March 9, 2020
Bob Dietz