I've made some very accurate predictions during this pandemic, most of which resulted from simply paying attention to scientists. One of these days I'll do a summary. Today, however, I'm going to make a real long shot, out in left field, bizarro prediction. Despite the craziness of it, I think that there's a very good chance that I'll turn out to be correct.
Here's the unvarnished prediction: I think that after President Trump loses the election November 3, he'll attempt to hold more rallies between then and the transfer of power. To what degree the GOP tries to dissuade him from doing so will be the big question.
Of course, it serves no productive purpose for the president, after losing, to schedule rallies. It makes zero sense. I think he's going to try primarily because he's addicted to them. After the general electorate rejects him, his inability to face the reality music will compel him to get more tastes of echo chamber public adulation. His entire life has been a climb into the insular narcissistic cockpit he now occupies. He won't be able to spend even two months cold turkey out of the rally environments.
Part of it will be sheer addiction to in-person adulation. Part will be the cognitive dissonance. He won't be able to process his rejection and the perception that he failed. He will desperately seek counter evidence to sustain his self esteem. And part of it may an exercise in spite, to damage the country as a parting gesture, but under the aegis of challenging the fairness of the election. More rallies will ensue, either under the guise of publicizing the election rigged-ness or as potential fundraisers for a nascent third party that he'd like to helm. The interaction between a lame duck president and a GOP trying to clean up the mess should be fascinating.
The president is addicted to the cheers, the spotlight, and the adulation. He's going to do all he can to prolong the love and attention. Things may get ugly and even more unreal. This president as an out-of-control lame duck during literally the worst months of a once-a-century pandemic is a bad conjunction of events. Historically, lethally bad.
Bob Dietz
October 21, 2020
