Introduction
The last week has featured the Trump administration pushing the concept of herd immunity as their solution to the current pandemic. All statistical indications are that we're finally entering the dreaded second surge, so the GOP has decided that now is the best time to do nothing.
This cliff notes debunking will be short and sweet. Understand that the United States does not have any long term data on Covid-19 because the virus has been around less than a year.
Three Problems
Any reliance on herd immunity requires at least three leaps of faith. First, the effects of having had the virus in terms of conveying immunity are largely unknown. If immunity is conveyed, it likely is for a limited time measured in months rather than years. If people who have had the virus once can get it again, the entire concept of herd immunity is undercut and rendered practically useless.
Second, the long term consequences of Covid-19 have not been established. If there are indeed "long haul" effects, as seems to be the case, then living through the virus isn't simply a matter of who survives and who does not. Rather, it becomes a case of who is debilitated to what extent and for how long. Regarding lung damage, for example, if a significant percent of Covid-19 survivors sustain 10% or more lung capacity reduction, that is a big deal. We each lose a small percent of lung capacity every year as we age. A good chunk of those who get the virus are, in essence, prematurely aged in terms of lung capacity. Other effects include inflammation surrounding the heart. If getting Covid-19 results in these serious consequences, repeat infections may cause grave add-on effects. Without long term data, any reliance on herd immunity is grossly speculative, risking serious consequences.
Third, herd immunity as an alleged strategy obviously risks overwhelming hospital systems, resulting in more deaths than would occur if infections were staggered over longer periods of time.
Our Leaders Have Abandoned Us
Herd immunity, on this October 17, 2020, is simply one phrase that substitutes for another phrase, "doing nothing." Since the U.S. appears on the brink of the second surge blow-up, plying herd immunity as a so-called strategy allows those pushing the idea to abrogate their responsibilities. They wish to wash their hands of something at which they have miserably failed. Old time gamblers call walking away from a bad situation for which one is responsible, "pulling a Pontius Pilate."
Defining doing nothing as "herd immunity strategy" the week before our second American surge is a cynical, lazy, self-absorbed joke. When one compares countries that implemented various degrees of herd immunity emphases, the correlation is clear. They have not done as well as their peers.
Here we sit as Americans, snowballing towards 400,000 dead, and our leadership throws science, lessons learned from other nations, our U.S. experts, and U.S. lives to the wind. Our current leaders are hell bent on passively culling the herd. And that is what they will be doing for the next three months -- killing us in the name of expediency and commerce. Pulling what they consider the perfect Pontius Pilate.
Bob Dietz
October 16, 2020
