Shutdowns in the United States have emphasized protecting the people at highest perceived risk. The recommendations for those older than 60 and those with diabetes or heart conditions have been to stay at home as much as possible and to avoid risky social environments. The most vulnerable are told to follow the strictest guidelines.
There is, however, another possible perspective from which to view this. Now that analyses are in progress regarding virus loads spewed by breathing, speaking at various volumes, and singing, it's become clear that individuals have very different capacities to spread the virus. One person can deliver a hundred times the virus load of someone else. Not only that, but age categories have very different virus load delivery averages. Children do not generate much of a dose. People over the age of 70 also do not deliver much of a viral load dose, either.
It would therefore be possible to categorize people not just by vulnerability to virus, but also by how much threat they pose to others. People over 70, although at high risk themselves, present the least risk to others. This opens an entire realm of possibilities and questions. By acknowledging different threat levels posed by individuals, we can flip the standard protect-the-vulnerable strategy on its head. Degree-of-threat as a restriction, rather than degree of vulnerability, is currently an undiscovered country.
Briefly consider the ramifications. Perhaps confining or restricting the most vulnerable could give way to restrictions on those who have the most potential to spread the virus. This would take us down a path that could include churches without choirs, no singing in general, no environments requiring loud speaking or shouting, and silent, mask-wearing fans at sports events. Certainly these are behavior options that would reduce risk for everyone. One of the reasons for the viral explosions in meat packing plants is the high decibel background that requires people to shout to each other. Religious services have been viral sparking points because of the loud singing and chanting. Perhaps the movie, A Quiet Place, provides a creepy analogous fable.
At the moment, restricting the power to kill as much as restricting the behavior of those most likely to die is thinking outside of the box. We're going to need plenty of that in the months ahead.
Bob Dietz
May 18, 2020
