"We'll be at 100,000, 110,000 -- the lower level of what was projected if we did the shutdown." President Trump (May 8, 2020)
"137,000 deaths by August 4th" IHME model (May 9, 2020)
"The prophecies from the Trump administration have failed. In fact, they have failed miserably. Make no mistake, however, there will be far fetched prophecies to come. And no shortage of believers." Bob Dietz (May 2, 2020)
No rest for the weary, I suppose.
I thought that the ridiculous string of horrifically inaccurate projections had come to an end. I should have listened to my own prediction, quoted above. Once again, we have the assignation of numbers and dates simply for the purpose of temporarily fostering an illusion of control. These attempts at calming-by-metrics and die-by dates have become both absurd and cruel.
The numbers will undoubtedly be wrong. I know, I know, here's where I say some poor idiot professional gambler has no business thinking he knows better than the president and the IHME. The Trumpian number, according to me, might last until the end of May, maybe, hopefully. The IHME number may make it to July 4th or thereabouts. The only way either prediction holds up is if someone orders the virus to go on vacation earlier than the August 4th arbitrarily assigned end date. Not sure how that will work out.
Oh, if only I were allowed to tweak my football predictions while events were in progress and then claim expertise. My world would be a different place.
Speaking of gambling, in the interests of dark humor, I want to report that I may have come up with a reason the president feels compelled to continually throw inaccurate numbers out to the public. Perhaps he found an offshore where he can bet American death Over/Unders. I recall Jimmy the Greek way back when, taking heat because people realized that he was touting one side of a game on CBS, allowing the number to move, and then betting the opposite side. Maybe the president is a fan of Paul Newman/Tom Cruise in The Color of Money or the ESPN poker series Tilt. Both featured protagonists who, at crucial junctures, made fortunes betting against themselves. It's possible that President Trump is "pulling a Greek," as they say.
I have no alternative explanation, other than that he continually attempts to change the world via magical thinking. He believes, in other words, that his saying makes it so.
All I know is, I wish he would stop. Just when I think that I can take a few blog days off, "There he goes again." Ronald Reagan would not be proud.
Bob Dietz
May 10, 2020
