"You better cut the pizza into four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six." Yogi Berra
You can fudge numbers. You can't fudge reality. All you can do is obstruct the view.
If the governors of Florida and Georgia really are imposing top-down spin on reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, it creates a kind of Yogi Berra data moment. Both states decided to reopen despite the best recommendations of science. Results from other countries suggested they should not open. American epidemiologists did not want them to open with current limited testing and contact tracing. The guidelines of the president's own task force say they had not met the necessary criteria. In each case, science said they should not have opened, but they opened anyway. So now, Florida and Georgia want to present the goosed-numbers perception that their numbers had been coming down and continue to decline. Why do that if it's not in the interest of the public good?
Massaging the numbers serves a purpose. It gives the states' leaders multiple outs to shirk responsibility if things go bad. First, each state can point to the falling numbers as their rationale for re-opening. If everything goes to hell, they can point to the science as flawed: "We (sort of) had the numbers the scientists wanted, but it didn't work. It's the scientists' fault." Second, the responsibility can also be foisted off on the citizenry: "We hit the benchmarks, but something went wrong. People didn't listen."
The governors have ignored science, but will attempt to blame science when it all blows up. The deluge will come, not as bad as New York, but bad enough. With illness on a week to two-week delay (and possibly more -- newer cases seem to have longer incubations), and death counts on a four or five-week delay, June should prove especially challenging for states such as Florida, Georgia, Texas and Tennessee.
Attempts at excuses and spin in the weeks leading up to July 4th should be worthy of Cirque contortionists. Or Yogi Berra with a southern drawl.
Bob Dietz
May 20, 2020
