When Prophecies Fail

"We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It's going to be just fine."  President Donald Trump (January 22, 2020)

"We're going very substantially down, not up."  President Donald Trump (February 26, 2020)

"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear."  President Donald Trump (February 27, 2020)

"Right now, we are heading to 50,000 and according to the projections we will end up with 60,000 by the end of the pandemic."  President Donald Trump (April 20, 2020)

"Our forecast now is 74,000 deaths. That's our best estimate."  Dr. Chris Murray, director of the IHME, whose projections have been promulgated by the White House. (April 28, 2020)

"This is a great success story." "Federal government rose to the challenge." Jared Kushner (April 29, 2020)


So what happens when prophecies fail? And then continually fail again and again?

Cognitive dissonance theory made its debut back in 1956 with the publishing of Leon Festinger's When Prophecy Fails. The book followed the adventures of sociologists embedded in a flying saucer cult that believed the end of the earth was near. Their leader explained that the saucer would come to take them away, and he actually set a date for the big event. Nothing much happened on that day, however, so he eventually predicted other possible dates, none of which triggered the hoped-for intergalactic getaway.

Festinger's observations had to do with the ability of believers to brush off disconfirming evidence. In fact, in some ways, the more dramatic the failure of the prophecy, the more the believers' commitment strengthened. What should have been clear disconfirming proof served only to amp up the solidarity and loyalty of the believers.

During the whirlwind course of this pandemic, we have been told by government non-scientists that bad stuff was not going to happen. Our highest profile leaders and the organization called Fox News repeatedly downplayed the likelihood of pandemic and its consequences, even as COVID-19 unfolded around the world. At each step of their public declarations, they have not only been wrong, they have been ridiculously bad predictors, almost like reverse touts who can't get anything right.

For many weeks, believers didn't allow events occurring in plain view to affect their notions of what was real and what was "fake news." Finally, however, the mortality figures became so ubiquitous that the majority of hard core believers had to reinvent their rationale for labeling people as right or wrong. A few still cling to "COVID-19 is a scam," although that is a tough position to maintain as the death toll mounts. Most of the believers have pivoted to a patriotic fervor to put the poorest American workers at frontline risk in service of protecting the economy and "American way of life."

What would Festinger have predicted? Well, in earlier entries, I incorporated Festinger's themes and reported that I expected conspiracy theories, religiosity, and gun brandishing to characterize reactions to the failed prophecies. Festinger would have anticipated a further tightening of social circles for the believers and a demonization of those pointing out the irrationality of their choices. He would have expected that, as predictions went further and further awry, the core believers would actually increase their proselytizing.

All of the issues mentioned in earlier entries have contributed to this current mess. Americans have this strange sense of cultural and individual exceptionalism that appears impermeable to argument. They expect some sort of manifest destiny to rescue them from virus harm. While all human beings are guilty of seeking out information which supports what they already believe to be true, Americans have made it an artform. Americans also resist the idea that probability actually applies to them. They don't know enough about critical thinking or how science works to have a sense of who is lying to them and who isn't. Cultural respect for science during this pandemic is a lifesaver. Americans, unfortunately, don't have it.

The prophecies from the Trump administration have failed. In fact, they have failed miserably. Make no mistake, however, there will be additional far fetched prophecies to come. And no shortage of believers.


May 2, 2020
Bob Dietz