Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert's August 6 East Texas Now interview provided a preview of the GOP template that will be on display the next 11 weeks. Gohmert's interview was carefully crafted, adhering to rules and priorities that the GOP will use to deflect science and data in the days to come.
The more I looked closely at the interview, the more disturbing it became. Gohmert plays at being a folksy every-man, continually providing opinions that he says are backed by facts, data, and names that never materialize. When he presents actual hard numbers, such as his "79% reduced fatality rate" when using hydroxychloroquine, the number is unanchored by precise definition or specific attribution of studies or investigators. Gohmert is able to evade being pinned down because he avoids the adversarial interviewer or any actual expert.
The question thus arises, is Louie Gohmert doing this accidentally in a naive and offhanded way? Or is his presentation practical, precise, and coldly manipulative under the auspices of a folksy every-man public persona?
Well, it took me awhile, but I finally realized which author from my youth was a dead presentation-ringer for Gohmert. I was 10 or 11 when I first read Play Poker to Win by Amarillo Slim Preston. Gohmert has the same physical presentation as Slim and those same icy reptilian eyes that betray his persona facade. My worst poker nightmare would be sitting at a table filled with Amarillo Slims and Louie Gohmerts. I'm not sure, Slim's cowboy hat aside, if I could tell Preston and Gohmert apart. Besides their physical similarities, they're both apex predators, gunslingers warping the minds of those who wander into their magnetic fields. Amarillo Slim oversaw the advent of Texas Hold 'Em (a game notorious for it's ease of cheating) and rode math skills and collusion to success. Louie Gohmert has ridden America's lack of science and critical thinking to GOP success. These Texas boys have both been master strategists.
In answer to the original question, Gohmert knows exactly what he is saying each sentence of the way.
The GOP Anti-Science Template
Using the Louie Gohmert interview as a map, I'm going to predict the talking points and emphases of President Trump and the GOP during the next 80 days. If you thought that the GOP had been anti-science before, you haven't seen anything yet.
The key theme of the president and his allies will be the alleged effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine. Considering that it failed double blind studies and the FDA revoked its general use, how can this be? Easy. Science has been all but ignored for the last six months. Now science won't just be ignored. Its recommendations and conclusions will be fought tooth and nail.
The first GOP priority is to pry the responsibility for the Covid-19 response from its own back and somehow dilute the blame. This is best done by publicizing the idea that hydroxychloroquine not only works, but works quite well against the virus. The "79% fewer fatalities with hydroxy" phrase will make the rounds. Failure to use hydroxychloroquine will be assigned a conspiratorial cause, with Dr. Fauci as figurehead for the proverbial Deep State. The Deep State and Big Pharma will be getting the blame. The thrust will be that it's all about making money, hating Trump, and squashing the little guy.
Something like this: "The best treatment was here all along, but Democrats, the Deep State, and Dr. Fauci would not allow it to be used to cut fatalities by 79%. The Dems, scientists, and doctors are responsible for the awful death toll. The GOP fought for the people, but the FDA and the rest of the system were rigged."
The hope isn't necessarily that voters will buy this story hook, line, and sinker, but that a good chunk of personal responsibility will be lifted from the GOP's back. Hard core believers may swallow the entire spiel. At the other end of the continuum, GOP doubters may be de-motivated to vote the non-GOP side.
The next theme will feature the chorus of "the deaths have been exaggerated." Anecdotes and stories of misdiagnoses with Covid-19 assignations will fill Fox News. So if you did blame the GOP for deaths, best to blame them somewhat less.
Tied in with these first two themes will be the idea that the lack of widespread use of hydroxychloroquine was the reason for the shutdowns that froze the economy. It wasn't that closings and re-openings were botched. That's scientist speak. The real problem was that people weren't allowed to use the HCQ. That's what tanked the economy.
Meanwhile, Fauci, Redfield and Birx will be sidelined. Hired intellectual hands will be brought in, no matter their inferior credentials. Early vaccines and new breakthrough cures will be hyped. Supporting data for the GOP claims will be mentioned in fleeting, general, non-descript ways. Everything will be generalities and promises. Data from the most credible studies will not be mentioned.
It would not surprise me if, during the Republican convention, Trump promised hydroxychloroquine for everyone who wants it. What better way to relieve stress-stricken Americans than to promise a cheap effective cure? Then, if you vote against Trump, you're voting against a cure. You're the bad guy. Evil incarnate.That's where we're going.
The GOP convention will feature non-experts giving expert advice on life and death medical strategies. This will put people like Fauci and Birx and Redfield in a bind. They are government employees. Will they muster the energy to go toe to toe against the president to countervail whatever claptrap is unveiled in the next 80 days? They will be in a no-win situation for themselves. Will they have the intestinal fortitude to say, "The GOP is pushing bunk?" Will they have the guts to go up against "the cure?"
People are looking for safety and salvation and villains to blame. The GOP will provide it all.
More (and Worse) Things to Come
We are going to have a very loud anti-science drumbeat for the next 80 days. With some of the blame for the death toll shifting to the non-use of hydroxychloroquine, there will be an interesting consequence. Shifting blame to the Dems and the Deep State and the FDA has the intended side effect of lifting some of the death blame from those Americans who failed to wear masks or social distance. Civilians will be relieved of part of their responsibility, angst , and guilt. It wasn't the lack of masks or early re-opening that led to deaths; it was the lack of HCQ. Many Americans will be relieved, and also less motivated to wear masks or social distance in the future. That is how this see-saw psychological dynamic will work.
What American doesn't want to feel the weight of guilt lifted? What American doesn't want to believe in a cure right now?
The planning of all of this is truly worthy of the most maniacal Bond villain. Or maybe the balding dude in Russia.
Bob Dietz
August 18, 2020
