Since I'm a professional handicapper and sports bettor, I suppose it's time I rendered opinions on the alleged upcoming football season and the state of sports during this pandemic.
I've been handicapping football since I was 13, so that's 50 years in round numbers, and I have never dealt with anything remotely resembling 2020. I'm going to give my general impressions first, then I'll get into some sports wagering specifics in Part Two.
Why Gamble?
Okay, the first question is why would anyone in his or her correct mind wager on sports right now? Boredom? Addiction? Outright stupidity? My professional opinion, at first glance, is that wagering on this stuff is insane, unless you're somebody's team doctor. Then, frankly, it makes a lot of sense. However, having said that, I believe there may be some specific opportunities that I'll address in Part Two.
Will They Play? Should They Play?
Let's go through various American major sports. First is baseball. Looks to be the safest of all major sports, featuring the least likelihood of contracting Covid-19 even though there is no isolation bubble as in the NBA. However, that theory goes out the window if certain veteran players on certain teams hire girls and throw parties, ahem. Ride sharing is often a dangerous endeavor, if you get my drift. So without naming names, let's just say that millionaire athletes are sometimes their own worst enemies, and then it becomes the duty of MLB to try to keep a PR lid on the virus-spreading festivities. The season is already staggering. I'd say it's somewhat less than 50/50 that they make it to the planned conclusion.
Next is the NBA. The bubble environment and mini-season followed by playoffs gives them a chance. Plus there's a social change culture that binds players a bit more to follow the league's rules. Plus the rosters are small. I think that the NBA can pull this off to the conclusion they desire. I'll be surprised if they don't.
Now for the NFL. The owners are hell bent on having an actual season. Players can choose to opt out and get paid a flat 150K if low risk or 350K if high risk. No bubble. Contact on every play. It's absolutely nuts to try this for the television money. It will be a disaster, with huge chunks of rosters suspended and quarantined every week. Here's the literal killer: about two-thirds of NFL players have one of the high risk conditions that make Covid-19 really dangerous. Think about that for a moment. The owners, however, will undoubtedly try to give it a go. Then, when the United States is finally overwhelmed everywhere in October due to in-person schooling and flu/virus hospital loading, the NFL will pause the season. That's my long shot prediction. If they have any brains, the owners will call it off before a game is played. I don't expect that they will.
Finally, college football. I'm a college football specialist. More than 80% of what I wager each year involves college football. Last week, the NCAA gave the divisions until August 21 to decide whether they will hold fall sports. Built into that deadline is the requirement that schools maintain scholarships for those players who opt out of playing. More important, in my opinion, are the additional requirements that schools must maintain insurance that covers Covid-19 costs and that schools can't force athletes to waive any Covid-19 legal rights. That latter requirement, I think, will weigh heavily on most schools and result in canceled seasons. The long-term consequences of Covid-19 have not been medically established because there is no long-term data. Schools could be opening themselves up to massive future lawsuits if they hold sports seasons. I'm not sure even the wealthiest athletic departments are ready to take on this kind of risk.
Already, the entire Michigan State and Rutgers football teams have been quarantined. Starting the season in September seems completely irresponsible. I think that the sane, responsible compromise for college football is to postpone the season until January. That gives schools time to evaluate October/November virus surges and plan for their spring semesters.
Many college football players, faced with an August 14 deadline to decide, have opted out. The better the player, the more likely he is to opt out. The bottom line: college football would be wise to postpone its season.
Bob Dietz
August 8, 2020
