On Tuesday, August 10, the Pac-12 and Big 10 officially called off their fall football seasons along with all other fall sports. The Mid American Conference (MAC) and Mountain West had canceled their seasons the previous week. The Big 10 has stated that they will plan for a spring football schedule if possible, which is what I've been recommending. This means that two of the so-called power conferences have vetoed fall football, leaving the ACC, Big 12, and SEC to make their decisions. There are many overt and covert angles that will factor into these decisions.
To put things in overall perspective, I'd first like to mention two interesting variables that inform the context in which the "Power Five" conferences operate right now. First, the two leagues that have opted out of fall football, the Pac-12 and Big 10, have the highest admissions standards for athletes in these "Power Five" conferences. This doesn't get mentioned very often during Saturday broadcasts, but the differences can be substantial.
Second, the historical college football mega-brands in the South, such as Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Clemson, are in GOP states helmed by red governors. Thus, the cultural and psychological context of these programs is significantly different from the Pac-12 and Big 10 schools. The states in which most SEC, ACC, and Big 12 teams operate have been GOP echo chambers since the pandemic began.
Any or all of the remaining conferences could cancel their seasons as I write this the afternoon of Wednesday, August 12. Examining how the decisions will be made leads one to a handful of observations. Let's spell them out.
The SEC makes more money from football than any other conference. The SEC football coaches and assistants get paid more than other staffs. Realistically, some of their better players get paid more, too (ask Cam and his dad). I would expect the SEC to be the last of the conferences to shut down. All eyes are on them. If they shut down, all other conferences will follow suit. They are the college football standard bearers, the biggest and best plantation, so to speak. Yeah, I know that last line is politically incorrect, but someone track down Sonny Vaccaro and ask him if it's pragmatically incorrect.
Why Play?
So what do the brand name powerhouses like Alabama and Clemson lose by taking the fall off? They lose an in-your-face high profile year of branding. Also, playing would likely give them a leg up recruiting-wise on the Big 10 and Pac-12 schools. The Pac-12, however, isn't really in the general recruiting ballpark as the SEC, so we're essentially talking about the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 getting a leg up on the Big 10 in terms of recruiting and branding.
Playing the fall season may, however, come with some branding costs. Many of the best players will opt out of playing. Why risk professional careers by getting ill? Long-term Covid-19 consequences have not been medically established, so potential NFL players don't know the virus' eventual and perhaps permanent effects.
Liability
Since long-term Covid-19 risks are unknown, then long-term liability is unknown. The NCAA clearly stated in its directive that conferences cannot make athletes waive their legal rights vis-a-vis Covid-19. The NFL Players Union established that two-thirds of NFL players have existing conditions that place them in the high risk Covid-19 category. The percentage of college players who similarly are at high risk is, at the least, fifty percent. That's a lot of people who presumably could be at risk and come back to sue athletic departments and universities next year or a decade down the road.
It was the specific NCAA directive that schools could not force athletes to sign Covid-19 waivers that, to me, made playing a fall schedule foolish in the extreme. The universities open themselves up to overwhelming legal risks stretching well into the future. How or why would any university decide short term financial benefits or recruiting gains outweigh limitless liability for years?
Cognitive Dissonance (Again)
I've repeatedly used the concept of cognitive dissonance lately, but boy has it been useful during this pandemic. The entire push to re-open quickly and its aftermath have been fueled by state governments refusing to simply acknowledge reality. Georgia, Texas, Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee have all been guilty of ignoring evidence from experts and from directly in front of their noses. They've ignored information that disconfirms their beliefs and that frames their institutional decisions as incorrect.
At each step of the way, as evidence they were wrong mounted, they doubled down on disingenuous excuses and outright rejections of reality. College football allows the people who have been wrong all along another opportunity to be, for once, correct. So if Georgia and Texas and Florida can pull off successful, normal college football seasons while the rest of the world warns them that the sky will fall on them, then somehow the leaders of those states will have been right and the rest of the planet wrong. It's an opportunity for red state redemption. They may have been wrong about when to close, they may have been wrong about when and how to re-open, they may be wrong about masks, but dammit -- they were right about college football! And somehow that should win the day.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a veritable poster boy for cognitive dissonance during this pandemic, had the temerity to say that he thought college football was safe, players should play, and any players in conferences that had canceled were welcome to try to play in the state of Florida. He then mentioned that he wasn't sure how the NCAA would feel about his invitation. DeSantis had been quite popular in Florida before the pandemic, a mini-Trump clone of sorts. He evidently had serious presidential aspirations. He simply refuses to promote what would save lives as he clings to some projected future for himself that has almost no chance of coming to fruition.
Red state redemption. Mark it down. These governors are promoting Hail Marys as their Hail Mary. They need to be right, they deserve to be right, and they will do anything to demonstrate that they are right.
What's Next?
We'll see where all of this leads. I suspect each university, from Clemson to Oklahoma, has multiple members of legal teams telling the universities to shut things down. Sources suggest that the delay in announcing some conference cancellations may be tied to extending fund raising as long as possible in lieu of no homecoming donations. Turning off football drags down donations, so every week that the wheels churn is another week of income from alumni.
I've kind of kept this one to myself, but there is also the possibility that a league like the SEC may see the "no legal waiver regarding Covid-19" NCAA declaration as a tool to leave the NCAA. While not likely to happen, I guarantee that the idea of forcing players to sign a waiver and abandoning the NCAA is being discussed. The SEC could be trying to pick off teams from the ACC and Big 12 for a super-league sans NCAA overview. And sans legal protections for the players.
The intelligent move for the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 is to delay college football until the spring. We'll see if intelligence or cognitive dissonance wins the day.
Bob Dietz
August 12, 2020
