Earlier this week, I promised some pandemic betting insights, so I'll tell you what I tried and also what I think is possible during this pandemic.
This football season, assuming there is one, will be such an anomaly that following routines that have led me to winning overall in college football for 40 years is not going to fly. This year is an entirely different and aberrant animal, so I am hesitant to prepare in a normal manner. While my usual means of preparation and analysis may be useless, however, there is a reasonable chance that this college football season could still be profitable. The means for making money, however, would be different than usual.
First, since any established favorite in a conference is just as likely as conference dregs to be hit with Covid-19 infections and quarantines, one cannot take futures chalk. Selecting some ridiculous long shots keeps investments low, with the possibility that the brand names get shot down by the virus. Second, since any given week, huge chunks of rosters can be sidelined, lines could swing massively. I'm one of those people who does numbers checks at 2 AM and 5 AM and works about a hundred hours a week, so my shop-'til-I-drop sensibilities may yield more significant middle shots than during a normal season.
Okay, that's it for the free tips. I never tell people how I actually do things, so that's as much as anyone gets. But allow me to share my misadventures this week as I dabbled in pandemic sports betting. To put things in context, I've been doing this professionally for 40 years, and I've made about half a dozen serious baseball wagers in that time. I have a tough time betting real money on a sport where different venues are different shapes and sizes. Seems nuts to me. So my deciding to shell out even a few dollars on a baseball theory was rare. And again, to add context, 85% or so of my wagering is college football. The baseball bets I'll describe were each about one-tenth the size of my usual college football wagers.
Anyway, I had a theory. I know almost nothing about baseball, but I thought that the Miami Marlins getting off to a 7-1 start had resulted in their getting way more attention and positive ink than they would have gotten from a 7-1 start during a normal, 162-game season. Thus my conclusion was that value lay in the other side. I decided that I would fire 10 consecutive wagers against them, regardless of opponent or site.
By the time I pulled the trigger, the Marlins had dropped to 7-2. I bet against them, had chalk, and won. I then took Toronto, playing in "home" Buffalo, as a heavy chalk. I had a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the eighth, went to get a cup of coffee, and came back to a 4-4 game. Ouch. Toronto managed to win in extra winnings. I fired against Miami again last night, again taking Toronto at "home," and laying -160. Miami led 11-4. Toronto somehow tied it 11-11, then fell behind in the top of the tenth, 14-11. The Blue Jays got two men on in the bottom of the inning with one out, but failed to score.
I pulled the plug on further wagering. Too much mental wear and tear. Pitching cannot be trusted. The pitching in MLB has been horrendous. More pitchers have been injured in teams' first 15 games than in any season I can remember. I suppose this was always a distinct possibility, but the reality of it is really jarring. It's ugly. So I am taking my four-tenths of a unit profit from the three wagers and calling it a day. I am proud of that four-tenths of a unit, as I did a lot of sweating and grumbling while acquiring it.
Betting on anomalous events really isn't my thing. This football season may be the most anomalous in the history of the sport. Opportunities might exist. The best opportunity in a minefield, however, is to get out of it intact. Wouldn't it be easier to not walk into the mine field in the first place?
Bob Dietz
August 13, 2020
